With the Election Commission of India announcing the schedule for the upcoming legislative assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram, political parties are gearing up for the last major political battle before 2024. The elections are expected to be a test of popularity (or the lack of it) for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress Party. While the results of the state elections have not been seen to impact the subsequent Lok Sabha elections in any significant way, the results will certainly power the campaign for the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.
Significantly, in three of the five states going to polls, BJP and Congress are in a head-to-head battle. In Chhattisgarh, where incumbent Bhupesh Baghel seems to be popular with the electorate as per surveys, the Congress party is seeking to cash in on his government’s welfare record. From procuring paddy for farmers at the highest price in the country to paying an allowance to rural labourers, the Congress is going all out to showcase its achievements in the state. It has also brokered peace within the party, with Deputy CM T.S. Singhdeo standing solidly behind Baghel. On the other hand, the BJP has raised the issue of corruption and lack of industrialisation in the urban areas. It has an uphill task to increase its tally from 14 seats to 45 seats, which is the magic number to form the government.
In Rajasthan, while BJP seems to be heading into the elections without its mascot Vasundhara Raje as its face, Congress has thrown its weight behind old warhorse Ashok Gehlot. While Ashok Gehlot is popular due to his government’s welfare measures such as the Chiranjeevi health insurance, smartphones for women, and employment guarantee in urban areas, there seems to be anti-incumbency against his MLAs. Other issues that will play a prominent role in the campaign include the restoration of the Old Pension Scheme and the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project. A win will boost the Congress’ chances for a good show in the Lok Sabha polls whereas a defeat means BJP will be favoured to win all 25 Lok Sabha seats on stake for the third time in a row.
Except for 15 months when the Congress under Kamal Nath ruled the state, Madhya Pradesh has had a BJP government for the past two decades. Aware of anti-incumbency against his government, the BJP has sought to downplay Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s role in the campaign and has fielded senior leaders and MPs as a counter to him. The central leadership of the party has taken control of the campaign, although the road ahead is bumpy.
On the other hand, the Congress is making a spirited bid to come back to power in this crucial heartland state which was once its bastion. With Nath at the helm, the party has been raising multiple issues including unemployment, corruption, and farmers’ distress, among others. He has been extensively touring constituencies that his party has lost in the last two decades, troubleshooting feuds between bickering party workers and hoping the rivalries do not dash his chances of winning the state.
Telangana is set to witness an interesting triangular battle between the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) of K. Chandrashekar Rao, the BJP, and the Congress. BRS hopes to retain power under KCR who has launched several innovative welfare schemes. Rejuvenated by Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, Congress hopes to encash the anti-incumbency against KCR, although it faces a formidable task. The Lok Sabha performance (4 seats) gives the BJP hope that it can evolve from being a marginal player in the state. Its aggressive campaign, based on allegations against KCR’s daughter of playing a role in the Delhi liquor “scam”, aims at garnering a significant number of seats to develop a foothold in another Southern state.
Mizoram, formerly a Congress bastion, will largely witness a bipolar contest between the ruling Mizo National Front (MNF) and main challenger Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM), even as BJP tries to gain a foothold in the state in which it bagged one seat in the last elections. The Congress which ruled the state for a long time, is struggling to revive its fortunes even after a leadership change. The ongoing strife in neighbouring Manipur is set to play a big role in the campaign in the days to come. According to reports, both the ZPM and the Congress are hoping that political polarisation on ethnic lines following violence in Manipur may boost their chances.
For the Congress, which won Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh in 2018, it is important to win these states again. With Mallikarjun Kharge at the helm and a host of issues, including the newfound issue of caste census, Congress has a lot going for it. The BJP will rely on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s image and the central government’s performance and promises. This strategy has not always yielded dividends, as in Karnataka earlier this year.
It has leadership and organisational problems at the state level, with Vasundhara Raje Scindia in Rajasthan and Shivraj Singh Chauhan in Madhya Pradesh. The party is also likely to draw attention to the Centre’s and PM’s successes and policies — G20, women’s reservation Bill, increased subsidies on LPG cylinders, etc. The elections will also be the first litmus test for the opposition grouping INDIA, although only one constituent, Congress is in the fray.
